Uganda is positioning its upcoming oil production as a key driver for economic growth, with commercial exports expected to begin in 2026, potentially generating up to $3 billion annually at peak and significantly enhancing foreign exchange reserves.
The East African nation, which discovered commercial oil reserves in 2006, is on track to start production from the Lake Albert region in the second half of 2026, with first exports via the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) to Tanzania’s coast targeted for October 2026. Major projects include the Tilenga field (operated by TotalEnergies) and Kingfisher field (CNOOC), with recoverable reserves estimated at 1-2 billion barrels and peak output of 230,000 barrels per day by 2030.
The Bank of Uganda projects GDP growth accelerating to 10% in fiscal year 2026/27 as oil comes online, up from 6.3% in 2024/25, with oil revenues supporting debt repayment, foreign exchange stability, and broader economic linkages. Exports, which surged to $12.79 billion in the year ending November 2025 driven by commodities like coffee and gold, are expected to receive a major boost from oil, narrowing the trade deficit and strengthening reserves, which hit $5.4 billion in September 2025.
S&P Global revised Uganda’s outlook to positive in November 2025, citing resilient growth and oil prospects, while the IMF noted strengthened reserves from exports and inflows in its November 2025 assessment. The 2025/26 budget allocates funds for oil infrastructure, including the refinery and petrochemical industries, to maximize value addition.
Despite optimism, the central bank governor has cautioned against overhype, emphasizing early revenues will prioritize stability over immediate windfalls.
