Shiba Inu (SHIB) has recently demonstrated a remarkable surge in exchange activity, with nearly 54 billion tokens moving within a single 24-hour period. This massive transfer volume marks a significant bullish signal for the cryptocurrency, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics that could lead to a price rally. Analyzing the on-chain data and technical chart patterns behind this movement sheds light on the underlying reasons for such activity and what it could mean for the future of SHIB.
The most critical metric to understand this surge is the sharp decline in SHIB reserves held on exchanges. According to data, exchange reserves have dropped by 0.05%, now sitting at approximately 85 trillion SHIB tokens. Even more striking is the netflow figure, which currently stands at a negative 43 trillion, indicating that far more SHIB tokens are leaving exchanges than coming in. This outflow generally translates to reduced selling pressure in the open market, as fewer tokens are available for immediate sale. Consequently, this scarcity on exchanges often precedes upward price movements since investors are holding onto their tokens rather than liquidating them.
Periods of significant token outflows from exchanges are usually linked with reduced downside volatility and are indicative of accumulation stages. Accumulation phases occur when investors and traders gradually buy and hold tokens, potentially setting the stage for a rally once demand overcomes supply. Supporting this are additional positive signs from network activity metrics. Over the last 24 hours, the number of transactions involving SHIB increased by almost 1%, while the count of active addresses rose by 0.93%. Such increases signal growing engagement and interest in the network, which is often a precursor to heightened market activity and price moves.
For weeks, SHIB has been trading within a symmetrical triangle chart pattern, reflecting market indecision and consolidation. Rising transaction volumes and increased on-chain activity suggest traders and holders could be preparing for a substantial breakout from this pattern. This technical setup is crucial, as symmetrical triangles often lead to significant directional moves—a breakout either to the upside or downside is imminent.
Chart Analysis and Price Targets
Technically, SHIB is currently confined between two key levels:
- Support: A rising trendline beneath current price levels, dynamically supporting SHIB around the $0.0000128 to $0.000013 range.
- Resistance: The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) above, near $0.000014, combined with a descending trendline.
The recent bounce from the $0.0000128 zone shows strong buyer defense, mitigating further declines after a brief dip below $0.000013. This zone has become a critical support level, signaling that buyers are stepping in to accumulate SHIB at these lower prices.
If SHIB manages to maintain its support and the negative exchange netflows continue, the cryptocurrency is likely to test the resistance level near $0.000014. A successful breakout above this EMA and the descending trendline would validate bullish momentum and open the way for further gains.
The next major targets after breaking resistance are projected at:
- $0.000016: This level acts as an immediate psychological and technical resistance, tied to previous price action and supply zones.
- $0.000017: A higher resistance zone where profit-taking could increase, particularly if overall crypto market sentiment remains positive.
Alternatively, if SHIB fails to hold $0.0000128 support and selling pressure increases, it risks a breakdown toward the next critical support at:
- $0.0000117: A minor support zone where some buyers might intervene.
- Below $0.0000117, the next downside could see SHIB losing another decimal place, potentially falling below $0.000010, which would be a bearish development signaling renewed selling pressure.
Technical Indicators to Watch
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): If RSI trends upward above 50, it would confirm growing bullish momentum. Conversely, a drop below 40 could indicate weakening demand.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A bullish crossover (MACD line crossing above signal line) would support the breakout scenario, while a bearish crossover would warn of possible retracement.
- Volume: A breakout accompanied by increased volume would strengthen the case for sustainable gains. Lack of volume could imply a false breakout or weak momentum.
Summary
The surging movement of nearly 54 billion SHIB tokens on exchanges in just 24 hours is a major bullish indicator, supported by declining exchange reserves and rising network activity. SHIB’s price is balancing between important support and resistance areas, poised for a significant move. Technical charts suggest a potential breakout above the $0.000014 resistance, with targets extending to $0.000016 and $0.000017, if bullish momentum sustains.
However, investors should remain cautious of potential downside risks if support zones fail, particularly around $0.0000128 and $0.0000117. Monitoring key technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, and volume will be essential to confirm the next directional move.
The next few trading sessions will be critical in determining whether SHIB’s current accumulation phase will transition into a meaningful rally, making it a pivotal moment for traders and holders alike.
