MTN Nigeria has quietly rewritten the script for Africa’s largest telecom operator. In the full-year 2025 results that MTN Group released Monday, the Nigerian unit delivered CODM EBITDA of $1.926 billion, more than double the $946.59 million it posted in 2024 and enough to eclipse every other market, including the once-dominant South African home operation.
The numbers tell the story in stark terms. Nigeria’s CODM EBITDA now sits at roughly 84 percent above South Africa’s $1.048 billion contribution, with Ghana in between at $1.276 billion. In rand terms, the currency MTN Group reports in, Nigeria generated R32.488 billion in CODM EBITDA against South Africa’s R19.653 billion. That reversal didn’t happen by accident. It reflects a market that finally escaped the foreign-exchange volatility that crushed earnings in prior years and instead rode explosive demand for data and fintech services.
Stand-alone, MTN Nigeria’s own results (released in late February) painted the same picture of turnaround. Service revenue climbed 55.1 percent to N5.2 trillion, profit after tax swung from a N400.4 billion loss in 2024 to a N1.1 trillion gain, and the company more than doubled capital expenditure to N1 trillion. Subscriber numbers reached 87.3 million, while data usage and mobile-money volumes kept accelerating. The operator even managed to keep direct network costs in check, rising just 4.94 percent, delivering operating leverage that would make any CFO smile.
For context, this is the same business that spent much of 2023 and 2024 bleeding headline earnings because of naira devaluation. FX losses that once ran into hundreds of billions of naira flipped into modest gains as the currency stabilized, inflation eased, and regulators allowed selective tariff adjustments. The result is not just recovery; it is structural reweighting inside the MTN empire.
At the group level, the shift is already reshaping expectations. MTN reported service revenue of R218 billion, up nearly 25 percent in headline terms and even stronger in constant currency. Group EBITDA before once-off items hit R98.5 billion, basic earnings per share swung from a loss to a profit, and the board lifted the dividend to 500 cents per share from 345 cents. Management pointed squarely to Nigeria and Ghana as the engines. CEO Ralph Mupita called the year “excellent” and the final chapter of Ambition 2025, which saw the group surpass 300 million customers continent
None of this erases the realities of operating in Nigeria. Vandalism remains a persistent headache, more than 9,000 fibre incidents in 2025 alone, and energy costs still run high. Network efficiency lags South Africa’s: MTN Nigeria spends 51 cents to generate each unit of EBITDA versus 39 cents back home. Yet scale is the great equalizer. With Africa’s most populous country and a mobile penetration story still in its middle innings, the economics tilt heavily toward volume.
The strategic implications are already visible. Early in 2026 MTN moved to acquire IHS Towers assets, aiming to bring the same cost discipline it applies in South Africa to its Nigerian tower portfolio and reduce reliance on third-party landlords. That move, combined with continued 5G rollout and fintech expansion through MoMo PSB, suggests management sees Nigeria not as a volatile side bet but as the anchor market for the next decade.
For the broader African tech ecosystem, the story carries two messages. First, macro stability still matters enormously. The naira’s relative calm and falling inflation in 2025 did more for MTN’s bottom line than any single product launch. Second, data and digital services have become the real growth lever. Voice is table stakes; the money now flows from smartphones, mobile money, and enterprise connectivity. Airtel Africa’s parallel rebound in Nigeria underscores the point, competition is intense, but the prize is large enough for multiple winners.
Investors have noticed. MTN Group’s share price reaction Monday reflected relief that the Nigeria engine is firing on all cylinders rather than threatening to stall again. The group’s forward guidance remains intact, with medium-term targets updated for stronger returns and leverage. In effect, MTN is telling the market: our future earnings power is increasingly Nigerian.
Also read:MTN Group Surpasses 307 Million Customers in 2025
That re-centering carries risks. Regulatory changes, fresh currency turbulence, or renewed infrastructure attacks could still sting. Yet the 2025 numbers also show resilience built through heavy investment and operational focus. For a company whose identity has long been tied to Johannesburg, the message from Lagos is clear: Africa’s largest economy is no longer just a market, it is the profit center.
The final year of Ambition 2025 closed with a decisive shift. The next chapter, Ambition 2030, will be written with Nigeria’s data-hungry population and fintech momentum front and center. For MTN, the center of gravity has moved. For African telecom watchers, the scoreboard just flashed a new leader.
